Future of Transportation: Not Quite There Yet

40 years ago, a concept like electrical, self-driven vehicles was the stuff most Science Fiction movies were pushing relentlessly. Nowadays, we’re living it. It’s probably only a matter of time before the traditional combustion engine becomes a relic in a museum and all cars will run on batteries.

However, how soon are we talking? Green Deal advocates are enthusiastic about ‘soon’ meaning ten years’ time. Is that even realistic, or just another pipe dream? The future of transportation is coming, but we might just be in for a longer wait than previously expected. Find out what’s the state of the industry, and its biggest blocking points, in what follows.

 

The political context

This is turning out to be quite the hot summer, not only from a temperature point of view. Maybe unsurprisingly, Europe’s leaning towards the right in most recent elections, and that will definitely have a big impact on the energy sector going forward.

One of the consequences is EU’s package of green laws coming under attack. Remember the 2035 ban on the sale of combustion engine cars? One of the central pillars of the Green Deal is opposed by the EPP – European People’s Party. After winning a majority of seats in the European Parliament, Manfred Weber’s first order of business was to discuss the reversal of said initiative.

Green credibility has been a real hot topic since 2019, with quite the ambitious objective: zero greenhouse gasses by 2050. Now, the initiative proposed by Ursula von der Leyen will most likely be subject to adjustments. According to Peter Liese, lead climate lawmaker of the EPP, the ban on combustion engines needs to be abandoned. Agriculture is also to be protected from more aggressive climate regulation.

Apparently, more and more voices are calling for a ‘realistic’ take on climate legislation. As climate change is still a concern, but not a top one, according to the way people have voted, The Green Deal is not going anywhere. It’s not dying, by any stretch of the word, but it will most likely be transforming. We’ll see what’s what after political dealmaking has had its run.

Where does that leave the combustion engine? Too early to tell, but there certainly are alternatives, and come 2035 a ban on traditional engines may no longer be necessary if the technology progresses fast enough.

 

Alternatives and innovations for the future of transportation

Will any technological advancement be popular, read affordable, and environmentally friendly enough to overtake the traditional engine by 2035? We have no way of knowing yet, but these are the best positioned candidates. These most likely won’t dominate the market but will still offer a decent alternative to the combustion engine.

 

Biofuels

Biofuels make sense for a couple of reasons. First, they offer security of energy supply. Second, they mitigate climate change. If that wasn’t enough, they could also contribute to reducing urban pollution and, ideally, help with the development of rural areas.

Today, biofuels are mostly compatible with cars in circulation and have the advantage of being easily blended with fossil fuels. They’ve been a big point on the EU’s energy-climate policy since 2009 and at present biofuel policies are focused on the development of second-generation biofuels that would overcome market barriers. Sure, for that to happen, distribution and storage systems need to also be upgraded.

It goes without saying that there should exist a fuel standard that would mitigate possible environmental damage from the production process, competition with food production or compromising biodiversity.

Let’s mention a couple of current programs, focused on second generation biofuels for dedicated or hybrid engines.

• Bioethanol for Sustainable Transport, also known as the BEST initiative. This project aims at demonstrating a large-scale substitution of diesel and petrol by bioethanol. It should result in a strategic introduction of vehicles and distribution-lines, amounting to more than 10 000 cars and over 140 fuelling stations.
• Biogas as Vehicle Fuel initiative. This project would expand biogas fleets and prove the technical reliability and cost-effectiveness of biogas fuels, via large-scale demonstrations.
• Demonstration of 2nd Generation Vegetable Oil Fuels in Advanced Engines (2ndVegOil) project. This initiative aims to achieve the introduction of 2nd generation vegetable oils in advanced engines, mainly targeting hybrids.

 

Hydrogen

As of right now, most fuel cell electric vehicles are powered by hydrogen and are considered to be zero-emission. As opposed to battery electric vehicles, FCEVs do not run on batteries that need to be recharged, but rather produce the electricity onboard. This is where hydrogen comes in: as fuel for a variety of electric applications that generate power, the only byproducts being heat and water. This conversion emits no pollutants whatsoever and minimizes greenhouse gas.

In the transportation sector, the biggest benefits seem to be observed in the heavy-duty sector, where battery technology is not yet suitable given their weight. Of course, hydrogen can also be used for storing energy for long periods of time, or as a great fallback in case of wind and solar energy, which are intermittent sources at best.

Sure, integrating infrastructure for hydrogen that is similar to fuelling stations will be a costly and time-consuming undertaking, but the future is not really happening any time soon, is it? BEV charging stations are already a thing, after all.

It certainly helps that hydrogen is seen as a low or even zero-carbon fuel option, being abundant in nature and highly versatile as an energy carrier. Sure, it’s challenging and expensive to transport, due to its lightness and needing to be liquified or compressed. On top of it, some emissions are still generated in the process of transporting, dispensing and even producing hydrogen fuel. The process involves separating hydrogen from other compounds, which can be energy intensive. As a result, the quantity of emissions depends on both the method of production and the source of feedstock.

Right now, one of the most common methods of producing hydrogen is steam methane reforming, which involves stripping and recombining H2 molecules from water and methane. However, this results in carbon dioxide and methane emissions.

The other most known method is electrolysis, as in splitting the hydrogen from the oxygen in water via an electrical current. In case electricity is coming from a non-emitting source, say wind turbines, hydropower or/and solar photovoltaic, then there are no upstream GHG emissions.

Of course, hydrogen can even come from plant materials or from trash – with some pilot projects already producing it from wastewater and landfill gas.

Currently, hydrogen is used in powering a large collection of vehicles, from electric forklifts to transit buses. Apart from regular cars, other initiatives could see hydrogen being adopted on a larger scale for:

• Drayage trucks
• Yard tractors
• Cargo handlers
• Switcher locomotives
• Marine Propulsion and auxiliary power
• Stationary Power Generation for onsite electricity.

 

EV batteries

We can’t rightly mention electrical vehicles and not talk about batteries, right? Well, according to the latest news, 24M, an MIT spinout, has designed a new type of EV battery: safer, easier to recycle. As a bonus, it lasts much longer and, allegedly, it can go as far as 1000 miles before needing a recharge.

Since range anxiety is still one of the most common reasons why people avoid electric cars, this could be a godsend. According to 24M, this longer range can also help the car’s battery last for a longer period of time. Why is that? Using a rapid charger for a full charge can damage it. As such, the longer-range warrants fewer recharges.

Another advantage seems to be a better resale value. Right now, electric vehicles lose their value at a faster rate than gas cars. One reason for this could be the fact that the capabilities of used EVs are subject to becoming outdated and incompatible with newer technologies by the time they are resold. We’re not even mentioning market conditions, which are rarely friendly to electric vehicles. Sure, this could be placated by lowering prices for EVs.

Projections made by 24M estimate the new system lasting for at least 500 000 miles, with overly optimistic numbers getting closer to a million miles. As such, buying an EV with a couple of hundred thousand miles will not be seen as an inconvenient in the following years.

This new battery works by using lithium metal, not lithium-ion, resulting in more energy density. While lithium metal batteries are nothing new, they haven’t penetrated the market due to safety issues. 24M aims at changing this by using a separator that would help in preventing the formation of dendrites that cause fires and shorts. The system also closely monitors the battery cells and will discontinue activity if any signs of a short surface. Plus, the whole system is easier to manufacture than lithium-ion and it requires fewer steps. By using fewer materials, for example less copper, plastic or/and aluminium, the price also goes down.

At present, most EV batteries are harder to recycle due to a chemical that binds them together. Since the new system avoids said binder, complicated recycling processes can be skipped entirely. This news separator called ‘Impervio’ will most likely be mass-manufactured come 2025, as the company started to license the technology to automakers. It should be in testing as early as next year.

This new 1000-miles battery could not have existed without previous developments, such as:

• Semi-solid-state batteries, which can be produced at half the cost of a conventional battery. This is due to a complete redesign of the battery cell, owning to a semisolid thick electrode, which increases the thickness of the layer in the lithium-ion battery by approximately five times. As a result, storage capacity is increased and 80% of the supporting structure is eliminated.
• The electrode to pack, a new way to of manufacturing batteries. This represents a streamlined battery pack, with electrodes packaged right into it. According to 24M, this removes the need for modules and individual cells. It should also deliver unmatched energy density.
• Impervio™, the new battery separator, which we already mentioned.

All these come together as one product – Eternalyte™, which seems to be the company’s response to a sustainable energy future. Early test results already show that this new technology substantially improves the cycle life and rate capability, while also providing a previously unmatched cycle stability in lithium-metal batteries.

Automakers are also expected to start field-testing for performance, taking into account hot and cold weather operation.

24M also offers another type of innovation under the Liforever™ name, a direct material recycling methodology aimed at ESS and EV batteries. This model reduces the environmental impact that lithium-ion batteries have, both in process and at end-of-life. This is done by making the process both efficient and cost-effective. Speaking about cost saving, the streamlined SemiSolid™ technology also eliminates half the steps included in conventional cell production.

Their system avoids creating black mass e-waste (something which they claim no one else in the industry does) and keeps active materials in their respective original form. Active materials just undergo a low-cost cleaning after recovery, or re-lithiation, if necessary. You’ll be happy to know that this methodology is compatible with current and future recycling regulations.

Ammonia-powered engine

We couldn’t wrap up the discussion regarding the future of transportation without mentioning the latest contender: the ammonia-powered engine. A fine competitor for the hydrogen powered vehicles, this innovation by Toyota should be commercially available by 2026. They even mention the possibility of completely replacing their existing FCEV technology if everything goes according to plan.

The liquid ammonia combustion engine, built in collaboration with China’s GAC, is in the planning stage, and it is set to include a fully functional powertrain. The current output for their working 2.0-liter four-cylinder unit is 161 horsepower. Not too shabby, considering the fact that it is a fuel-saving engine without forced induction. And sure, we should also mention the fact that the unit’s carbon dioxide output is reduced by close to 90%. Thanks to ammonia, there’s no carbon, hydrocarbons or carbon dioxide emissions to speak of in the combustion cycle.

The only downside would be the high nitrogen output, but a solution is in the works. Most likely, this technology will be implemented in the hybrid models.

 

Balancing the scale in favour of a green future

Will these technologies be enough to balance the scale in favour of a green future for the transportation sector? 10 years is a long time, and right now the ban on traditional engines seems like a certainty. Still, we never know what technological wonder is waiting just around the corner. Laws and policies will just have to adapt.