Europe, Between the Pressure of Decarbonization and the Need for Reindustrialization

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent decision to allow a 20% increase in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 (compared to 2021 levels) brings to the fore the fragility of the balance between global climate policy and economic and geopolitical realities.

Russia, the world’s fourth-biggest polluter, justifies the target by referring to 1990 – a year that favours Moscow, given the massive industrial decline in the post-Soviet period. In fact, its target allows for a significant relaxation of the agreed cuts, in contrast to the Paris Agreement, which calls for drastic emission limits to keep global temperature rise below 1.5°C.

 

Europe, between “greening” pressures and the competitiveness challenge

At the same time, the European Union is going in the opposite direction, accelerating the directive on decarbonizing the economy and the goal of climate neutrality by 2050. But the European Green Deal and related policies put a major dilemma on the table: how to achieve the transition without eroding the continent’s industrial competitiveness.

The recent report by Mario Draghi, the former president of the European Central Bank, highlights exactly this vulnerability. Europe risks becoming a secondary economic player if it does not urgently rethink its industrial base, as the US pursues policies of massive support for industry (Inflation Reduction Act) and China relies on an aggressive mix of investment and strategic protectionism.

 

Reindustrialization, a condition for economic survival

Comparing the two models, we see how Russia is using its energy resources to bolster its economy and geopolitical position, even at the cost of relaxing climate targets. Europe, on the other hand, is at risk of accelerated de-industrialization unless the green transition is accompanied by massive investment in clean technologies, local energy production and secure supply chains.

Hence the central conclusion of the Draghi Report: Europe needs a reindustrialization strategy that combines environmental and economic security objectives. Without it, the continent will become dependent on technologies and raw materials from outside the EU, losing both jobs and strategic autonomy.

 

Geopolitical lesson of the moment

Moscow’s announcement is not just a technical decision on emissions, but also a geopolitical signal. Russia says it will continue to defend its economic model based on hydrocarbon exports, even if this contradicts international commitments.

For Europe, there can only be a double response: accelerating the internal energy transition (to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels) but also building a competitive industry capable of coping with a world in which not all players follow the same rules of decarbonization.

So, in a fragmented world, where Russia can afford to relax its climate policies to maintain its economic advantage, Europe cannot afford the luxury of a “blind” green transition. Reindustrialization, supported by coherent policies and massive investment in technology and clean energy, is becoming the basic condition for the EU’s economic survival.

The Green Deal needs to be complemented by a “European Industrial Deal”, otherwise the continent risks being caught between self-imposed regulatory rigors and the geopolitical realism of global competitors.