Oil Production Growth for Q1 2026 Blocked by OPEC+
OPEC+ agreed on the last day of November 2025 to maintain its oil production levels for the first quarter of 2026, opting for stability.
The group is weighing market risks and concerns about potential global oversupply. The meeting of OPEC+, which extracts half of the world’s oil, took place in the context of a new US effort to broker a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which could contribute to oil supplies if sanctions against Russia are relaxed, according to international media reports. The next meeting of the group will take place on June 7, 2026.
OPEC+ blocked oil production growth for the first quarter of 2026 after the eight members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman—increased their production targets by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day from April to December.
The meeting on November 30 reaffirmed this decision not to increase production, OPEC said in a statement, after it had been announced at the beginning of November. The group still has production cuts of around 3.24 million barrels per day in place, representing around 3% of global demand, and the latest meeting left these cuts unchanged.
At the beginning of November, OPEC+ decided to increase oil production in December by 137,000 barrels per day, with any further increases to be temporarily suspended in the first quarter of 2026. OPEC+ reduced production for several years, until April 2025, when cuts peaked at 5.85 million barrels per day, of which 2.2 million were voluntary reductions, 1.65 million from eight member states, and 2 million from the collective reduction of the entire group.
Mechanism for assessing production capacities
The OPEC+ group has approved a mechanism for assessing the maximum production capacity of its members, which will be used to set production reference levels starting in 2027, against which the production targets of the members will be set.
OPEC+ has been discussing this issue for years, and resolving it has proven difficult because some members, such as the United Arab Emirates, have increased their capacity and want higher quotas. The United Arab Emirates’ production capacity of 4.85 million barrels per day is close to its target of 5 million barrels per day, which it hopes to achieve by 2027.
Producers such as the United Arab Emirates want to add more supply to the market, given recent investments in capacity, which have stalled due to OPEC+ production restrictions in 2023.
Other members, such as African countries, have seen decreases in production capacity but oppose quota cuts. Angola left the group in 2024 because of a disagreement over its production quotas.
“The group’s message was clear: stability trumps ambition at a time when market prospects are rapidly deteriorating,” said Jorge Leon, a former OPEC official and Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy.
New decisions
The alliance of oil-exporting countries also agreed to hold meetings of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) twice a month.
In addition, participating countries also decided to “reaffirm the framework of the Cooperation Charter (CoC), signed on July 2, 2019, and request the OPEC Secretariat to develop a plan and translate it into programs to achieve all CoC objectives, as originally mandated, and to present it to the 41st OPEC and Non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting.”
Oil market volatility
The oil market has remained volatile in 2025 due to geopolitical tensions, tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, and production cuts imposed by OPEC+.
The US Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates, as well as US sanctions on Russian oil companies such as Lukoil and Rosneft, also affected oil prices.
If sanctions against Russia end, Russian oil is expected to enter global markets and drive prices down. However, continued war would support prices.
IEA warning
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects the first quarter of 2026 to still see one of the largest oversupplies in recent years. The agency predicts that inventories could rise by up to 5 million barrels per day, a level that would put additional pressure on prices.
An excess of this magnitude would render the OPEC+ decision insufficient without additional measures. Financial institutions such as JPMorgan have already warned that the group may need further cuts in 2026 to prevent prices from sliding toward USD 40.
