Russia-China: A New Energy Pole

The recent agreement between Gazprom and CNPC to increase gas deliveries through the Power of Siberia pipeline to 44 billion cubic meters per year, along with plans for Power of Siberia 2 and Soyuz Vostok, not only transforms the Eurasian energy architecture, but also has indirect consequences for Europe, including Romania.

 

Impact on Southeast Europe

As Russia sends increasing volumes to China, Europe’s dependence on Russian gas is declining. However, this shift does not eliminate the risks, as Moscow can use infrastructure and prices as political leverage in its relations with the Balkans, where Gazprom’s influence remains strong.

Instead, it will create additional pressure in Southeast Europe (Serbia, Hungary, Bulgaria), which still depends on Russian gas delivered via TurkStream.

If Russia gradually reduces its volumes to the European Union in favour of Asia, these countries risk either price increases or supply instability.

Under these conditions, the countries in the region (Greece and Croatia) will be forced to speed up diversification through LNG terminals, regional interconnectors and imports from Azerbaijan through the Southern Gas Corridor.

 

Relevance for Romania

Romania is in a unique position in this equation as it has significant domestic gas production (around 70-80% of consumption). The development of the offshore Neptun Deep Block in the Black Sea, planned for 2027, could turn the country into a regional supplier.

Moreover, Romania has the opportunity to become a regional hub. This is because the reduction in Russian volumes in Europe and their diversion to Asia opens up the opportunity for Romania to play a more important role in the region.

Interconnectors with Hungary, Bulgaria and Moldova, as well as the BRUA and Eastring projects can transform Romania into an energy hub.

We could also talk about strategic partnerships, as Hungary and Serbia maintain their ties with Gazprom, while Romania can differentiate itself by strengthening cooperation with the European Union, the United States and Azerbaijan. For example, the strategic importance of the Georgia-Romania-Hungary submarine power cable project is growing.

Long-term perspectives lead to the conclusion that Europe is becoming fragmented in terms of energy: the eastern part (Hungary, Serbia) remains anchored to Russian infrastructure, while Romania, Greece, and Bulgaria are trying to build alternatives through LNG and the Black Sea.

Romania has the opportunity to become a regional energy supplier if offshore exploitation is completed on time and could not only secure its domestic consumption but also export, counterbalancing Gazprom’s influence in the region.

 

Changed geopolitics?

In the new geopolitical context, Russian gas is heading to Asia, Azerbaijani gas and LNG are entering Europe, and Romania can become the bridge in this new energy architecture.

Virtually every billion cubic meters of gas directed from Russia to China increases the pressure on Europe to accelerate transition and diversification.

For Romania, this is not only a challenge but also an opportunity to secure its status as a strategic regional energy player.