Analysis

Q4 Employment Outlook survey

Romania amongst the countries with the highest hiring confidence

Labour market activity is a pretty important subject, specifically when you want to measure the economic prowess of a country. This is why the Manpower Group interviewed upwards of 59,000 employers across 44 countries and territories in order to forecast what Quarter 4 of 2018 might look like in terms of the activity on the labour market. The participants were asked to anticipate how the total employment at their location might change in the remaining three months leading to December 2018 compared to the current quarter. A whopping 43 out of 44 countries are expected to see job gains in the following period. Let’s see the specifics.

According to the report: “Fourth-quarter hiring plans strengthen in 22 of 44 countries and territories when compared to the July-September time frame, weaken in 14 and are unchanged in eight. When compared to last year at this time, Outlooks improve in 23 countries and territories, weaken in 13 and are unchanged in seven[1]. This spells good news for us as Romania is mentioned amongst the countries with the highest hiring confidence, along with Slovenia, the U.S., Japan and Taiwan while Switzerland, Argentina, France and Italy feature the weakest.

Romania-emplyment-rate
Source: Manpower

Speaking about the EMEA region, things are indeed looking good; an increase in workforce is expected in 25 out of 26 countries in the region. Again, Romania and Slovenia are at the forefront with employers reporting the most optimistic hiring plans. At the other end, Switzerland again reports the lowest hiring plan as well as the only negative forecast of the report. This is from a pool of more than 21,000 employers across 26 countries in the EMEA region.

Slovenia-employment-rate
Source: Manpower

 

Talking about Europe’s big four in terms of economies, only modest job gains are expected in Q4 with employers in Germany forecasting the most favourable hiring environment out of the bunch and the strongest Outlook in seven years.

There’s no surprise that job prospects are waning in the UK which features only cautiously optimistic forecasts but hiring plans are set to remain stable.

Both France and Italy are reported to have somewhat conservative hiring plans too with job gains “expected in most of France’s industry sectors and regions, but France’s Outlook dips slightly in both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year comparisons. Italy’s Outlook rebounds slightly from the prior quarter’s negative forecast and is boosted, in part, by the strongest Manufacturing sector Outlook reported since the country launched the survey in 2003[2].

Bulgaria-emplyment-rate
Source: Manpower

 

Belgium’s work market looks to be on the rise in almost all sectors, the biggest gains expected to show in the Construction and Finance & Business Services. The same story seems to unravel in The Netherlands where the most consistent employment growths show in the Utilities and Finance & Business Services sectors again.

Some opportunities might pop up in all of Spain’s industry sectors and regions while Austria’s outlook is reserved with Manufacturing showing again the best prospects for the second time in a row since 2008. As mentioned, Romania and Slovenia are the stars of the report, with a positive Outlook all across the board, with Construction and Manufacturing showing an active hiring pace in Romania, respectively Construction and Finance & Business Services in Slovenia. Hungary also boasts the strongest Manufacturing sector in the EMEA for this quarter, also with serious job gains in Construction and Transport, Storage & Communications sectors.

The report on the Nordic nations shows “employers in Finland anticipate the most fourth-quarter job gains with optimistic forecasts reported in both the Finance & Business Services and Manufacturing sectors”[3] while Sweden’s high points come from Manufacturing and Wholesale & Retail Trade sectors and Norway’s on the downturn as compared to three months ago.

[1] https://www.manpowergroup.com/wps/wcm/connect/2022489b-bd36-4136-801e-24f36adbcfaf/Global_2Col_USLetter_Q418.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=2022489b-bd36-4136-801e-24f36adbcfaf

[2] https://www.manpowergroup.com/wps/wcm/connect/2022489b-bd36-4136-801e-24f36adbcfaf/Global_2Col_USLetter_Q418.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=2022489b-bd36-4136-801e-24f36adbcfaf

[3] https://www.manpowergroup.com/wps/wcm/connect/2022489b-bd36-4136-801e-24f36adbcfaf/Global_2Col_USLetter_Q418.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=2022489b-bd36-4136-801e-24f36adbcfaf

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